Political Research Quarterly

 

Advanced Search

Journal Navigation

Journal Home

Subscriptions

Archive

Contact Us

Table of Contents

Click here to read the PRQ 2007 Annual Reports

Click here to sign up for SAGE Journal Email Alerts today!

Sign In to gain access to subscriptions and/or personal tools.
This Article
Right arrow Abstract Freely available
Right arrow Free Full Text (Free PDF) Free
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to Saved Citations
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Right arrow Request Reprints
Right arrow Add to My Marked Citations
Citing Articles
Right arrow Citing Articles via Google Scholar
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Quackenbush, S. L.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
Social Bookmarking
 Add to CiteULike   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us   Add to Digg   Add to Reddit   Add to Technorati  
What's this?
Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 59, No. 4, 533-541 (2006)
DOI: 10.1177/106591290605900403

National Missile Defense and Deterrence

Stephen L. Quackenbush

University of Missouri

The current stance of the Bush administration has renewed debate on the implications of national missile defense. While a large part of that debate concerns its technical and economic feasibility, there is also considerable debate concerning the ramifications of national missile defense for international peace and stability. Unfortunately, few studies have analyzed the implications of missile defense through the lens of deterrence theory. Those that have were based on classical deterrence theory, which is plagued by a variety of logical inconsistencies and empirical anomalies. Accordingly, I examine the implications of national missile defense for deterrence from the vantage point of an alternative theory of deterrence, perfect deterrence theory. The results indicate that national missile defense generally enhances the stability of deterrence; the greatest threat missile defense poses is causing dissatisfaction in potential challengers.

References

  • Blair, Bruce G. 1993. The Logic of Accidental Nuclear War. Washington, DC: Brookings.
  • Bracken, Paul J. 1983. The Command and Control of Nuclear Forces. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
  • Brams, Steven J., and D. Marc Kilgour. 1988. "Deterrence versus Defense: A Game-Theoretic Model of Star Wars". International Studies Quarterly 32: 3-28.[CrossRef]
  • Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1985. "The War Trap Revisited". American Political Science Review 79: 56-177.
  • Bundy, McGeorge, George F. Kennan, Robert S. McNamara, and Gerard Smith. 1984/1985. "The President’s Choice: Star Wars or Arms Control". Foreign Affairs 63: 264-278.
  • Cordesman, Anthony H. 2002. Strategic Threats and National Missile Defenses: Defending the U.S. Homeland. Westport, CT: Praeger.
  • Denoon, David B. H. 1995. Ballistic Missile Defense in the Post-Cold War Era. Boulder, CO: Westview.
  • Government Accountability Office. 2005. "Defense Acquisitions: Status of Ballistic Missile Defense Program in 2004: Report to Congressional Committees". Washington, DC: U.S. Government Accountability Office.
  • Harsanyi, John C. 1977. "Advances in Understanding Rational Behavior". In Robert E. Butts and Jaakko Hintikka, eds., Foundational Problems in Special Sciences. Dordrecht, Netherlands: D. Reidel.
  • Krepon, Michael. 2003. Cooperative Threat Reduction, Missile Defense, and the Nuclear Future. New York: Palgrave.
  • Lawrence, Robert M. 1987. Strategic Defense Initiative. Boulder, CO: Westview.
  • Lebovic, James H. 2002. "The Law of Small Numbers: Deterrence and National Missile Defense". Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (August): 455-483.[Abstract/Free Full Text]
  • Lennon, Alexander T. J., ed. 2002. Contemporary Nuclear Debates. Cambridge: MIT Press.
  • Lindsay, James M., and Michael E. O’Hanlon. 2001. Defending America: The Case for Limited National Missile Defense. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
  • Miller, Steven E. 2001. "The Flawed Case for Missile Defense". Survival 43: 95-109.
  • Miller, Steven E., and Stephen Van Evera. 1986. The Star Wars Controversy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Missile Defense Agency. 2005. "Tenth Interceptor Emplaced for the Ballistic Missile Defense System". http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/pdf/05fyi0071.pdf accessed 20 February 2006.
  • Payne, Rodger A. 2001. "Bush: The Sequel". International Studies Perspectives 2: 305-315.[CrossRef]
  • Powell, Robert. 1990. Nuclear Deterrence Theory. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • Powell, Robert. 2003. Nuclear Deterrence Theory, Nuclear Proliferation, and National Missile Defense. International Security 27: 86-118.[CrossRef]
  • Quackenbush, Stephen L. 2004. "The Rationality of Rational Choice Theory". International Interactions 30: 87-107.[CrossRef]
  • Quackenbush, Stephen L. 2005. "Deterrence Theory: Where Do We Stand?" Manuscript. quackenbushs@missouri.edu.
  • Quackenbush, Stephen L. 2006. "General Deterrence and International Conflict: Testing Perfect Deterrence Theory". Manuscript. quackenbushs@missouri.edu.
  • Quackenbush, Stephen L., and Frank C. Zagare. 2006. "The War in Kosovo: A Game-Theoretic Analysis". In Jennifer Sterling-Folker, ed., Making Sense of International Relations Theory. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.
  • Sagan, Scott D. 1993. The Limits of Safety. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Schelling, Thomas C. 1960. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • Schelling, Thomas C. 1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
  • Senese, Paul D., and Stephen L. Quackenbush. 2003. "Sowing the Seeds of Conflict: The Effect of Dispute Settlements on Durations of Peace". Journal of Politics 65 (3): 696-717.
  • Slocombe, Walter A. 2000. "The Administration’s Approach". Washington Quarterly 23 (3): 79-85.
  • Sokolsky, Richard. 2001. "Imagining European Missile Defense". Survival 43: 111-128.
  • Trachtenberg, Marc. 1991. History and Strategy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Urayama, Kori. 2004. "China Debates Missile Defense". Survival 46: 123-142.
  • Utgoff, Victor A. 2002. "Proliferation, Missile Defence, and American Ambitions". Survival 44 (2): 85-102.
  • Walt, Stephen M. 2000. "Containing Rogues and Renegades". In Victor A. Utgoff., ed., The Coming Crisis. Cambridge: MIT Press.
  • Wilkening, Dean A. 2000. Ballistic-Missile Defense and Strategic Stability (Adelphi Paper no. 334). London: International Institute for Strategic Studies.
  • Wirtz, James J., and Jeffrey A. Larsen, eds. 2001. Rockets’ Red Glare: Missile Defenses and the Future of World Politics. Cambridge, UK: Westview.
  • Zagare, Frank C. 1990. "Rationality and Deterrence". World Politics 42 (2): 238-260.[CrossRef]
  • Zagare, Frank C. 1996. "Classical Deterrence Theory: A Critical Assessment". International Interactions 21: 365-387.
  • Zagare, Frank C. 2004. "Reconciling Rationality with Deterrence: A Reexamination of the Logical Foundations of Deterrence Theory". Journal of Theoretical Politics 16: 107-141.[Abstract]
  • Zagare, Frank C., and D. Marc Kilgour. 1993. "Asymmetric Deterrence". International Studies Quarterly 37 (March): 1-27.
  • Zagare, Frank C., and D. Marc Kilgour. 1995. "Assessing Competing Defense Postures: The Strategic Implications of ‘Flexible Response.’" World Politics 47(3): 373-417.
  • Zagare, Frank C., and D. Marc Kilgour. 1998. "Deterrence Theory and the Spiral Model Revisited". Journal of Theoretical Politics 10: 59-87.[Abstract]
  • Zagare, Frank C., and D. Marc Kilgour. 2000. Perfect Deterrence. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
  • Zakaria, Fareed. 2001. "Don’t Oversell Missile Defense". Newsweek, May 14.

Add to CiteULike CiteULike   Add to Connotea Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us   Add to Digg Digg   Add to Reddit Reddit   Add to Technorati Technorati    What's this?



This Article
Right arrow Abstract Freely available
Right arrow Free Full Text (Free PDF) Free
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to Saved Citations
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Right arrow Request Reprints
Right arrow Add to My Marked Citations
Citing Articles
Right arrow Citing Articles via Google Scholar
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Quackenbush, S. L.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
Social Bookmarking
 Add to CiteULike   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us   Add to Digg   Add to Reddit   Add to Technorati  
What's this?