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Political Research Quarterly
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Do Investors Assess the Credibility of Campaign Commitments?

The Case of Mexico's 2006 Presidential Race

Allyson Lucinda Benton

Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, A.C

Do investors assess the credibility of campaign rhetoric? To answer this question, I develop several alternative arguments for how investors might consider candidates' policy platforms and apply them to Mexico's 2006 presidential race. Statistical analysis of polling trends and the Mexican stock market shows that rising electoral uncertainty lowered market performance, while growing support for either the left-leaning Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) or the market-friendly Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (PAN) reduced market volatility. These findings reveal that investors discounted López Obrador's left-leaning rhetoric but did not ignore the effect of a tight race on the value of their assets.

Key Words: stock markets • public opinion • presidential campaigns • Mexico

This version was published on September 1, 2008

Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 61, No. 3, 403-418 (2008)
DOI: 10.1177/1065912908314199
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