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Political Research Quarterly
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Who Overvotes, Who Undervotes, Using Punchcards? Evidence from Los Angeles County

D. E. "Betsy" Sinclair

California Institute of Technology

R. Michael Alvarez

California Institute of Technology

In this study we examine over- and undervotes from the November 2000 General Election in Los Angeles County. Los Angeles County is the nation’s largest election jurisdiction, and it used a punchcard voting system in that election. We use precincts as our unit of analysis and merge the 2000 election data with census data and voter registration data; our dataset allows us to examine all of the countywide races in 2000 (including candidate and ballot measures). We use a multivariate statistical analysis employing negative binomial regression to test hypotheses regarding the relationship between precincts’ political and demographic characteristics and over-and undervotes. We demonstrate that both over- and undervotes vary systematically across precincts in Los Angeles County, a finding that we argue has important implications for the representation of political interests.

Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 57, No. 1, 15-25 (2004)
DOI: 10.1177/106591290405700102


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