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Campaigns, Polls, and the States: Assessing the Accuracy of Statewide Presidential Trial-Heat Polls

Florida Atlantic University

Thomas Holbrook

University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Given the heavy reliance upon polls during election campaigns and the importance of state results in presidential election outcomes, this study examines the determinants of accuracy in statewide presidential trial-heat polls. Using Lau’s (1994) examination of national-level polls as a guide, we find that sample-related characteristics like sample size and the use of a likely voter sampling filter tend to improve the predictive accuracy of these polls. More importantly, however, we find that the number of days to election has an important impact on poll accuracy and that this effect can vary substantially across different campaign contexts.

Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 56, No. 4, 431-439 (2003)
DOI: 10.1177/106591290305600405


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